Wildcard Saturday NFL Free Bet: Seattle Seahawks @ San Francisco 49ers (-9.5 | O/U: 42)

We kickoff Wildcard Weekend Saturday evening in Santa Clara, California, as the Seattle Seahawks travel to face the San Francisco 49ers. This will be the respective teams’ third matchup of the season, with San Fran getting the better of Seattle in their two previous outings-- but will this game unfold in a similar fashion? 

Not only did the 49ers win these two prior to games, they covered the spread in both. And, by virtue of them doing so, they are getting immense credit by the oddsmakers as near ten point favorites. San Fran is undoubtedly one of the NFL’s best, and they deserve our respect-- but likely not to such an extent. Seattle still grades out as a top-ten team per DVOA, and HC Pete Carroll has gotten the better of the 49ers in his tenure (8-4 SU vs Kyle Shanahan). 

Additionally, let’s further highlight some key postseason trends in this matchup. Since 2002:

• The Road Team is 17-8-1 ATS vs a Division Rival

• Rookie QBs are 4-7-1 ATS on Wildcard Weekend

• First-time Playoff QBs are 6-16 ATS as a Home Favorite

There are trends too that may suggest a bet on San Francisco, but these are damning. The home team is often overvalued in this spot, and the jury is still out on rookie QB Brock Purdy. 

This 49ers team was favored by three points in Seattle in Week 15, and the change in venue is not enough to swing the spread this many points. We understand San Francisco’s edge in this matchup, but we still believe the Seahawks to have the superior QB, and can’t get behind such an inflated number.   

Bet: Seahawks +10 (-120)

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