Monday Night Football Free Play: Dallas Cowboys @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+2.5 | O/U: 45.5)
For the finale of Super Wildcard Weekend, the Dallas Cowboys visit the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in what oddsmakers anticipate to be the most contentious matchup of the weekend. These two teams met once already this year, with the Buccaneers claiming a 19-3 victory back in Week 1, but that matchup is hardly projectable onto this game.
A lot has changed since September, but perhaps nothing more than our opinion of Tampa Bay. Tampa entered the year as the betting favorite to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl, but we learned quickly that these were not the Bucs of yesteryears. Tampa’s 4-12-1 record ATS was the worst mark in the NFL, and it is only by virtue of playing in the NFC South that the 8-9 Bucs earned a playoff berth.
Conversely, the 12-5 Cowboys got the short end of the stick this year, as it is likely they would have had the favor of hosting a playoff game had they been in any division other than the NFC East. The Cowboys grade out as the 7th best team in the NFL per Weighted DVOA, and 5th in Net EPA / Play. Their exceptional record is very much a reflection of their rank in the league, and the allure in backing them vs Tampa Bay is understandable. However--
We feel as though, for the first time all season, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are being undervalued. In the waning weeks of the regular season, Tom Brady and the Bucs’ offense showed flashes of their former glory, especially so in their Week 17 matchup with the Panthers. Brady should be able to exploit deficiencies in the Cowboys’ secondary in a similar fashion, as Dallas’ defense has struggled to find an answer opposite Trevon Diggs at CB. Too, expect Tampa to be bolstered further by the return of C Ryan Jensen-- a welcome addition considering their offense has so often been stymied by interior pressure.
Furthermore, the Bucs’ edge defensively is where the true value lies. Tampa’s defense is as healthy as it’s been all season. For the first time since September, the unit will trot out both Akheim Hicks and Vita Vea at DT, and have the likes Carlton Davis, Jamaal Dean, and Antoine Winfield Jr. (among others) active in the secondary. The Tampa defense failed to live up to such lofty expectations this season, but this is because of the aforementioned absences of these players. The last time we saw this unit fully healthy, they were being spoken of as the best defense in the league, and limited this same Cowboys team to their worst performance to date.
Considering how the season unfolded, there are unstandable hesitations in betting on Tampa Bay. But this is the best the roster has looked all season, and we’re not in the business of fading Tom Brady in the playoffs. In his illustrious career, Brady is a pristine 21-5 at home in the postseason, and never has he been an underdog in front of his home crowd.
Bet: Buccaneers ML (+125)
If one is still not yet convinced:
In the past twenty years, there have been nine teams to make the playoffs with a non-winning record. Such teams are 6-3 SU, and 8-1 ATS in the wildcard round. It appears as though losing teams tend to be undervalued in the postseason, just as the Buccaneers are now.
Dallas has not fared so well on the road this season. Their 4-4 record is a stark deviation from how they fare in front of their home crowd, and we don’t believe this to be a coincidence. Too, QB Dak Prescott is a winless 0-4 ATS in his short postseason career.
The Bucs may have stumbled their way into the playoffs, but we can’t pass up the opportunity to back Tom Brady as a home underdog. Play Tampa on the spread if one so chooses (+3 -120), but The Premium feels confident in endorsing the Bucs’ on the moneyline. To find the rest of The Premium’s Best Bets, click the link here and use promo code JURGENS to save 25% on a VIP package!
