Friday Night Free Bet Miami Heat @ Milwaukee Bucks (-1 | O/U: 219)
The Heat visit the Bucks on Friday night, as both teams look to usher in the post All-Star break with a win. Winners of twelve straight, Milwaukee was the NBA’s hottest team heading into the break, but they’re likely without F Giannis Antetokounmpo (wrist) tonight. Even still, we like the Bucks chances of keeping the momentum going on their home court.
First and foremost, Milwaukee has been an excellent bet at home. Their 24-5 record at the Fiserv Forum tops the Eastern Conference, and is behind only the Nuggets (27-4) for best home record in the NBA. Too, their home dominance has been independent of whether or not Giannis plays this season. In the five home games in which the ‘Greek Freak’ has sat out, Milwaukee is 4-1 SU and ATS, with the lone loss coinciding with rest for Jrue Holiday, and Khris Middleton as well. Both Holiday and Middleton are available tonight, with the latter player primed to take on as many minutes as he has all season.
Furthermore, the Bucks are capable as ever to overcome Giannis’ absence. With the acquisition of Jae Crowder, and the return of Bobby Portis to the rotation, Milwaukee suddenly boasts one of the deepest frontcourts in the NBA, and are more than capable of deterring Bam Adebayo on the interior. If Adebayo does indeed have a pedestrian game, we struggle to find an edge for a Miami offense which rates 24th in Adjusted Net Rating, and 28th from three.
Bet: Bucks Moneyline (-120)
Counter arguments will cite that these two teams have met twice already without Giannis, with Miami winning both outright; but the Bucks played them competitively in each of those matchups, and boast a better lineup tonight than in either of those games.
Some trends to close it out:
Miami is 2-8 ATS over their last ten
Milwaukee is 7-3 ATS over their last ten
Miami is 4-12 SU as an Underdog this season
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