The Premium’s NBA Thursday Free Bet: Los Angeles Clippers @ Phoenix Suns (+1 | O/U: 221.5)
Two title contenders meet in the desert Thursday night, as the Los Angeles Clippers and Phoenix Suns usher in the All-Star break to cap off TNT’s double-header. This is a critical game for a myriad of reasons, but especially because the winner of tonight’s contest will have the inside track to the Pacific Division title.
This is a difficult game to handicap. The Suns have bested Los Angeles twice already this season, but we can’t simply extrapolate these prior results onto this game. The last time these two teams met, the Clippers were without both Kawhi Leonard and Paul George, and the Suns have since lost pivotal contributors (Mikal Bridges, Cam Johnson) in their trade for Kevin Durant. How much information can we truly glean from these previous meetings?
Nevertheless, and despite the absence of empirical evidence suggesting how this game will unfold, the data that is present suggests the Suns to be the side. Phoenix holds the edge in season long Advanced Metrics, and their projected starting five (Paul, Booker, Craig, Ayton, Okogie) thwarts the projected five for Los Angeles (Mann, George, Leonard, Morris, Zubac) in Net Rating. Too, when playing at home, Phoenix has been among the best bets in the NBA:
Since 2020, 71-53 ATS and 92-32 SU
This season, 17-12 ATS and 20-9 SU
The Clippers have played some of their best ball of the season over this past month, but none of their victories stand out as impressive, and they’ve tended to struggle against stout competition this year. Los Angeles is getting too much credit vs a Suns team perceived to be lacking in depth-- but the truth is, these two teams’ benches are currently a net neutral per 538’s RAPTOR Ratings.
Bet: Suns Moneyline (-110)
Los Angeles should be a slight underdog here, but we’re not complaining. Take the value, and back one of the NBA’s best home teams to take care of business ahead of the All-Star break. To find the rest of The Premium’s Best Bets, click the link here and use promo code JURGENS to save 25% on a VIP package!
