NBA Tuesday Free Bet: Los Angeles Clippers @ Toronto Raptors (-3.5 | O/U: 218.5)

Los Angeles

Expectations were, and are, monumental for Los Angeles. The Clippers entered 2022 as the odds-on favorite to win the title, selling us on their depth, and the promise of a healthy Kawhi Leonard. Unfortunately, it’s more of the same in LA, as the ‘injury management’ of their superstars has dominated their year, and resulted in an uneven first third of the season. Kawhi rested last night in Detroit, a come-from-behind OT victory for LA, but his reintegration has not been so seamless. 

The Clippers’ projected starting lineup is appealing with both Leonard and Paul George expected to be without a minutes restriction, and the duo’s presence has influenced sharp money on LA-- but such bets may be short-sighted. 

Last night in Detroit, LA was fortunate to spark a late comeback after all-but conceding the loss to Detroit. In the OT victory, starters Paul George and Ivica Zubac logged a combined 79 minutes, and it is stunning that neither player is expected to rest. Given the Clippers’ history, it would not be a surprise were HC Ty Lue to manage these two players’ minutes judiciously. 

Toronto

The Raptors have underperformed thus far, but they have a tendency to do so early in the year, and played much better on their most recent road trip. Situationally, we like Toronto coming back home after consecutive impressive victories of the Knicks and Cavaliers, and we expect the home-crowd to be active as usual in Kawhi’s return. 

Too, in their last two games, the Raptors rate sixth in Net Rating to the Clippers’ thirteenth. Not to suggest that two games is an accurate measure of the teams’ disparity-- but these two games signal improvement from Toronto which the market has not yet fully realized. 

One last note-- The Raptors’ depth and versatility at the wing gives them an edge against a team like the Clippers. We expect a low scoring, contentious game throughout, and prefer backing Toronto’s depth in this situation. 

Bet: Raptors Moneyline (-165)

This is a fair matchup for Toronto, and a crucial game for them as they look to pivot away from a slow start. We expect a raucous home crown for the Raptors tonight, and are happy to catch the Clippers on the tail-end of a road back-to-back. Play them on the spread of you would prefer, but we think this is a good number to bet the moneyline, and that Toronto should be slightly more expensive tonight. 

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