NBA Friday Free Bet: New York Knicks @ Chicago Bulls (-2.5 | O/U: 225.5)

Once again we’re back betting on this matchup. The Bulls fell to the Knicks in Overtime Wednesday night, 128-120, but we like them to even the season series tonight in Chicago. 

Crucially, the Bulls were not thoroughly outplayed by New York in the loss, and the Knicks’ victory was as much a product of variance as anything else. Two chief examples of this being:

• This season the Knicks shoot 32.6% from three, averaging 11.1 made attempts per game. On Wednesday night, the Knicks converted 18-34 from deep (52.9%)

• The Bulls rank third in Defensive Rebound Percentage on the year, yet allowed New York an Offensive Rebound on 38% of their misses

We expect the Bulls to regain their focus on the defensive glass, and in doing so limit the Knicks’ offensive production. Further, there is obvious regression expected by the team from behind the arc. 

Conversely, 48.3% of Chicago’s total points came in the paint Wednesday, and such ability to attack New York’s interior defense is much more transferable game to game. If the Knicks’ shooting regresses to the mean, the Bulls should have no issue winning this one outright. 

Bet: Bulls Moneyline (-135)

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